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------=_NextPart_01C690C7.F8C3F000 Content-Location: file:///C:/6E4BB24E/Biekpe_Presentation_files/master11.xml Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/xml; charset="utf-8" ------=_NextPart_01C690C7.F8C3F000 Content-Location: file:///C:/6E4BB24E/Biekpe_Presentation_files/pres.xml Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/xml; charset="utf-8" ------=_NextPart_01C690C7.F8C3F000 Content-Location: file:///C:/6E4BB24E/Biekpe_Presentation_files/slide0050.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Slide 1
South African SMME Business Confidence Index = =
Presen= ted by: Professor Nicholas Biekpe
Africagrowth Research
Sponsored by: IDC
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Acknowledgements= : =
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Ú= Other Academic Institutions- Partners
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file:///C:/6E4BB24E/Biekpe_Presentation_files/slide0051.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Slide 1
Outline =
Ú= ;Global perspective =
Ú= ;South African perspective =
Ú= ;Why SMME Index?
Ú= ;Limitations to Busi= ness Success
Ú= ;Sampling Technique =
Ú= ;Methodology
Ú= ;Sampling Distribution
Ú= ;Index Results
Ú= ;Conclusion
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Global perspecti= ve =
Ú= ;About that 95% of companies in Austra= lia are from the SME sector;
ÚAmerica has the largest number of SME= s in the world;
Ú= ;After the second world war the growth= of both Japan and Germa= ny were SME led;
Ú= ;More tax revenue is generated from SM= Es in the deve= loped countries compared to tax from big business;
Ú= ;SMEs create more employment compared = to big business;
Ú= ;The above implies that SMEs are, trul= y, the engine of econo= mic growth!!!!!
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Background
ÚIt is estimated that there are more than 2.5 Milli= on = SMMEs in the country; = ÚSMMEs have a= major role to play in the South African economy in terms of employment creation, income generation and output growth; ÚIt is estima= ted that 91% of the formal business entities are SMMEs; ÚThey also contribute between 52 to 57% to GDP and = provide about 61% of employment;
<= span style=3D'font-size:88%;visibility:hidden'>Ú
<= span style=3D'font-size:88%;visibility:hidden'>Ú
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Background
ÚPromotion of the SMMEs is a key element in the Government's strategy for employment creation and = income generation; ÚHowever, SMME development is hampered by a number of factors including finance, lack of managerial skills, equipment and technology, regulatory issues and ac= cess to international mark= ets; ÚThere is nee= d for investment in the SMME sector, so as to create capacity for labour absorption and output g= rowth, as well as to improve income generation and redistribution.=
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Africagrowth Research
Background
Ú= ;Growth in the South African economy i= s underpinned by the growth and expansi= on of the SMME s= ector;
Ú= ;Measures that accurately capture and = measure = developments in this sector are there= fore = extremely important;
Ú= ;By measuring the attitudes and econom= ic expectations of small business owners throughout South = Africa, we measure their degree of confidence in the economy.
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Why an Index?
Ú= ;Provides a unified voice for the SMME sector;
Ú= ;Indices have the ability to track real economic growth= ;
Ú= ;There is no SMME index in the contine= nt;
Ú= ;It will help government, investors an= d policy makers to better understand the SMME sector;
Ú= ;It will be used as a policy tool to h= elp support the sector= ;
Ú= ;Will be used as a backup to investmen= t  decisions;
Ú
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6.72%&#= 13;
The exchange rate
8.40%&#= 13;
Sufficient demand
9.24%&#= 13;
Shortage of skilled labour
4.87%&#= 13;
Procurement & supplier limitations <= /div>
0.34%&#= 13;
Other &#= 13;
12.44%&#= 13;
Operating & capital costs <= /div>
2.35%&#= 13;
Impact of HIV/ Aids
14.45%&#= 13;
Govern taxes & regulations <= /div>
9.41%&#= 13;
Employee costs
10.76%&#= 13;
Crime&#= 13;
6.22%&#= 13;
Competition from imports
1.34%&#= 13;
BEE&#= 13;
5.21%&#= 13;
Access to markets
8.24%&#= 13;
Access to bank credit
Limitations to Business Success: Survey 2=
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Sampling Technique
ÚQuestionnaires were sent to senior managers and owners of enterprises in the SMME sector;
ÚThe senior managers or owners were asked to indicate the important factors or attributes limiting business success in their organisations; <= /span>
ÚThey were also requested to give their views about the current economic situati= on compared to the previous three months as well as to give their expectations for the business situation in the next 6 months.
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Sampling Technique
ÚEconomic sector= s were broadly divided in three key sectors:
ÚIndustry (wholesale & Retail)
ÚTrade (Manufacturing; electricity, gas and water; construction; mining & qua= rry and Agriculture)
ÚServices (Financial and Business Services; transport, storage & communication; community and social services; catering and accommodation)
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Sampling Technique
ÚTo be included in the sample, an enterprise needed to have either a fax numbe= r or an email address. The sample was drawn from a database of 17, 000 SMMEs in South Africa. This was a consolidation of databases from various sources &= #13;
ÚDepartment of Trade and Industry (DTI).
ÚThe Western Cape Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Nafcoc
ÚThe Economic Development and Tourism Database for the Western Cape
ÚInvest North West and the Kimberly Business Service Centre databases =
ÚContact details were also sourced from the Telkom Yellow pages and the Brabys webs= ite.
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The SMME Business Confidence Indices
Meth= odology
ÚThe SMME Index was constructed using the Diffusion Index method. The index is computed as a weighted average of the Fraction of (Up) and (Same) responses to questions in the survey.
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Methodology
Ú= ;A composite confidence indicator which measures the g= eneral assessment of present economic conditions and future expectations is also = computed;
Ú= ;For each question and industry an ind= ex is computed for both the present and fut= ure business situat= ion;
Ú= ;First indices were computed at the la= st quarter of 2005;&= #13;
Ú= ;Second indices were at the first quar= ter of 2006.
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Sample Distribution (Province)
ÚGauteng, KwaZulu Natal (KZN) and the Western Cape accounted for 60% of the total responses in both surveys.
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Sample Distribution 1st=  Survey (Size 225)=
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Sample Distribution 2nd=  Survey (Size141)<= /div>
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charset="us-ascii" Slide 1
Sample Distribution (Employees)
ÚThe employment trend has not changed much between the 2 surveys; ÚThe bulk of the SMME business employs less than 50 employees.
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Sample Distribution:
1st Survey
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Sample Distribution:
2nd Survey
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Sample Distribution (Turnover)
ÚAnnual tur= nover distribution did not vary much between 2 surveys; <= span style=3D'position:absolute;top:44.5%;left:11.98%;width:86.51%;height:6.75%= '>ÚApproximately 38% of firms had annual turnover more than 4m Rand.
Ú
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Sample Distribution 1st=  Survey
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file:///C:/6E4BB24E/Biekpe_Presentation_files/slide0013.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Slide 1
Sample Distribution 2nd=  Survey
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Sample Distribution (Economic Sectors)
ÚBoth samples of the survey show that the Industry sector leads in the= total number of respondents with a 47.8% and = 48.20% percentage representation in= the 1st and the 2nd survey respectively.
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Sample Distribution 1st=  Survey
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Sample Distribution 2nd=  Survey
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