Nigeria to miss 2012 GDP Target - Experts

Nigeria may have already missed the 7 per cent projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target of the Federal Government, owing to the ongoing nationwide strike, which entered its fifth day last Friday; experts have concluded.

Economic and commerce experts, who spoke with THISDAY weekend, explained that with a full week out of the indices for calculating the growth strides of the nation's economy in 2012, it would be difficult for the country to make up for the lost time and meet growth expectations for the year.

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted that Nigeria should grow by about 6.6 per cent in 2012, other economic experts and the Federal Government have projected that the nation's economy should grow by around 7 per cent this year; a target that has now been predicted by many to be a long shot, because of the Labour union protest.

Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) Muda Yusuf, said the loss to the private sector and economy resulting from the strike already stands above N500 billion when the informal sector and other arms of the economy are taken into account. He maintained that it was now doubtful if the economy would meet projected growth targets.

President of the Nigerian Association of Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA) Dr. Herb Ademola Ajayi, said this presented the strong imperative why the Federal Government and the Labour Unions should resolve their differences and call off the strike.

"The economy is losing so much and it will spell more economic misfortunes for the country if the stalemate continues. As things stand now, most of the economic fortunes predicted for the country before the strike have been rubbished by it, and expectations have to be reassessed," he said.

Also, Executive Director and Chief Executive of African Institute of Applied Economics, Enugu, Prof. Eric Eboh, said the calculation of the expected GDP growth rates may no longer add up with a whole week rendered absolutely unproductive.

He lamented that if Nigeria expects its economic growth postulations to come close to adding up in this New Year, urgent steps must be taken to salvage the ongoing chaos and put the country on the path of production again.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Lamido Sanusi Lamido in the same vein said the ongoing industrial action by the labour unions is costing Nigeria around N100 billion daily.

He said he expected inflation to rise to around 14 to 15 per cent by the middle of 2012, up from 10.5 per cent now with the petrol subsidy removal impasse taking its toll.

"Certainly, inflation is always going to go up with the removal of subsidy. I think what we've seen is the immediate shock impact of a sudden removal and things will settle down," he said.

"It took us two and half years from 2009 to come down to single digit from 15.6 per cent. I think a realistic target if we actually hit 15 per cent, I think we will be looking at end of 2013 before we come back to single digit," he added.

Source: http://allafrica.com

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